Generally Productive Talks #5 - Ai and Manufacturing

Introduction

Manufacturing is one of the most affected areas by the coming developments in technology and in particular Ai, as unskilled and even skilled labour positions have been in the process of moving towards automated solutions for the last 20 years, and this trend will only intensify

Faster, more efficient, higher quality, and eventually cheaper, Ai offers only benefits from a purely business perspective, but at the same time, its introduction removes the need for jobs that many have done their entire lives. Its very existence is an existential threat to millions of jobs around the world, jobs of many who do not want to change position, and in many cases of people who do not want to learn something new and simply want their lives to continue as they have always known. This is fighting a losing battle, the genie is already out of the bottle and the world has and is changing

The Past

Early Ai began to be implemented into Mass Production Manufacturing (MPM) in the 1970s when robots and automation were first introduced by General Motors (GM) to produce the Camaro and Firebird cars, they were used for welding, painting, and assembly and were seen to optimize the process and improve quality

Once the benefits could be seen it began a spark that has pushed innovation for the last 50 years, constantly improving and expanding its use. From the 70s to 80s early robotics were simple in design and function, expensive, single-use, and could not be reprogrammed, used to pick-and-place and simple assembly tasks but for large-scale mass production they were still a good option

Once the robots could be reprogrammed and more advanced control systems be implemented their value raised as they could be recycled for new productions. Their use was expanded and by the 90s SMT operations were a critical process operated mostly automatically. While by the 2000s Ai technologies were being introduced to develop a machine learning approach and enable optimization through learned experience

In the 2010s this has developed dramatically to incorporate entire production lines operated solely by robots and controlled now by Ai systems in areas like electronics and aerospace production

Today

Ai is here, it is being implemented now and is a growing and important component of high-end manufacturing, its benefits are many but it does still have limitations:

Benefits;

• Better Quality

• Effective Maintenance

• Optimized Production

• Reduced/Optimized Labour

• Improved Safety

• Improved Cycle Times

• Provide 24/7 manufacturing

Limitations;

• High Implementation Costs

• Security Concerns due to Cyber Attacks

• Significant Downtime in the event of any issue

• Significant Power Requirements

While the benefits already outweigh the limitations for high-end manufacturing, the systems are not yet in place for it to cover all manufacturing and there are still many skilled labour but also low-level or low-quantity production unskilled labour jobs that are not yet cost-effective to replace human workers with automated. But this is a diminishing area and these jobs will disappear in the coming years

The Future

Starting with simple programmable robots and growing into fully automated, teachable, and self-learning systems is a giant leap taken over the last few decades, but it is only the beginning, and advancements are expected to increase in speed and number in the years to come. Some expected to occur include:

5 Years

• Predictive Maintenance - Ai will identify when and where it is needed in advance

• Quality Control - earlier identification and analysis to improve all steps of quality

• Supply Chain - inventory management and waste management will be controlled for total efficiency

• Continuous Improvement - each step of the production process will be analyzed in real-time and improvements implemented, monitored, and improved again automatically

10 Years

• Smart Factories - autonomous manufacturing through Ai will be possible, which will mean it is possible to run production without human interaction, this will be extremely expensive though, and will not be the norm

• Advanced Robotics - continuous improvement of robotics and self-improvement of robotics will mean robots that can perform a multitude of tasks and self-adapt to different tasks

• Sustainable Manufacturing - expect analytics to achieve sustainable processes to enable manufacturing to run without waste and energy efficiently

• 3D Printing - accuracy, and capabilities to print with quality and material properties currently not possible will be and products that are currently impossible due to production limitations (such as undercutting on parts) will be the norm

20 Years

• Fully Automated Manufacturing - what was just beginning and very expensive will be the norm with all large-scale manufacturing fully automated and controlled by Ai

• Integrated Systems - the factory will be fully integrated through the entire supply chain system with all aspects controlled automatically

• Quantum Computing and Analytics - the ability to conceive of, analyze and solve any potential issue will be done before it is needed with safeguards managing all aspects of the production process

My thoughts:

Ai in Manufacturing will mean better products, faster development, better quality, and more consistency across all product areas. It will also mean in time that we can make things at home to a higher degree of quality than is possible in mass production today, but that is a topic for another day

The world has already changed, and each year it changes more, people need to accept this and governments need to force some change, this needs to be managed delicately (which is why I am doubtful it will happen) and people need to be slowly reskilled while in employment into new roles

However, there will not be enough new jobs to cover the ones lost and there will not be the unskilled jobs that some need. Ai in Manufacturing will dramatically change how work works, and how people see themselves and their lives. This will cause a seismic change in how the world works and I do not believe this is being acknowledged or planned for, if no one takes this seriously soon it will be too late and things could get messy...