Generally Productive Talks #1 - Ai and Design

Introduction

Chat-GPT is the biggest buzz story in the world this year, what it means for the world today and how the world will change in the future has a lot of takes. How its successor bots will impact every aspect of work and life can be both exciting and scary depending on your state of mind

I thought it might be interesting to get its perspective on matters and learn its limitations so I have started this blog where I will discuss with it matters of interest, today's post is 1500 words but I'll keep each subsequent post under 1000 words, and try to see what insights can be gained

Today was my first talk and I have to say, I have had much worse discussions with people, though it is still very limited, general summary would be, it's a fun tool but still a ways to go

Today's talk:

Ai's impact on Design and Development of physical products, a little self-serving granted but it seemed a good area to start.

I have read and seen videos of people both praising and fearful of Ai and decided to find out for myself by trying to test its limits, asking it deeper questions that require thought rather than just regurgitating what can be found on google and found while limited currently, it certainly can carry a conversation better than many humans, its responses are robotic, much more than news reports would have you believe but it is a good and useful tool

I introduced my area of expertise, to which it generated a google sourced reply on Chinese manufacturing and trends towards eco-friendly products and processes, then added a bit about e-commerce, a good attempt at a conversation starter (better than I would do myself in all honesty), but very surface level and as such not of interest to me in general and more importantly not to this discussion, so I entered into my questions

Questions for the Ai Bot

1. AI's impact on Design and Development over the last 50 years

2. Ai's potential impact in the next 5, 10, and 20 years

3. What needs to happen to achieve these impacts

4. What impact Ai could have on the need for humans in the Design and Development Process

The findings were interesting but I believe also show the limitations of the service, I have kept the wording it used but trimmed where appropriate;

1. AI's impact on Design and Development over the last 50 years

From early mainframe to personal computers and mobile devices, computing power and capabilities to designers and manufacturers has grown exponentially, allowing faster and more efficient product development as well as more sophisticated products

The internet and cloud computing have enabled greater collaboration and communication across the globe. This speeds up the development cycle and offers greater flexibility and agility to changing market and consumer demands

AI has shown particular promise in the design process. AI-powered generative design tools can help designers quickly explore and iterate on potential designs, considering factors like material usage, structural integrity, and manufacturing constraints. Machine learning algorithms can analyze consumer feedback and market trends to inform design decisions.

CAD is the most significant advancement in technology so far in the design and development field saving time and adding scope and understanding to new ideas.

AI is also having an impact is in the production process, as machine vision systems can be used to inspect and sort parts during manufacturing

2. Ai's potential impact on Design and Development in the next 5, 10, and 20 years

5 - AI advancements in machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision will allow designers and manufacturers to quickly and efficiently iterate on designs, test and refine prototypes, and optimize manufacturing processes

10 - Continued integration of AI and IoT technologies into physical products. This will allow more seamless and intuitive interactions between users and their devices, as well as greater automation and customization in the manufacturing process

20 - Continued evolution towards more sustainable and environmentally-friendly manufacturing practices, driven in part by advancements in AI and related technologies

3. What needs to happen to achieve these impacts

The changes within the next 5 years are expected as continued development of existing technology

5-10 - are several key developments that need to happen in the field of AI:

a) significant progress in natural language processing and understanding

b) continued advancement in computer vision technology, particularly in the area of object recognition and detection

c) progress in the development of explainable AI systems, which are capable of providing clear and understandable explanations for their decisions and actions

d) further progress in the development of AI systems that can learn from smaller amounts of data, known as few-shot or one-shot learning. This will be important for enabling AI systems to learn quickly and adapt to new tasks and environments with limited training data

10-20 - further advancements in AI technology will need to occur:

a) AI systems with greater flexibility, adaptability, and creativity will be necessary to handle the increasingly complex tasks involved in design and development processes. This will require significant breakthroughs in areas such as natural language processing, machine learning, and computer vision

b) increased collaboration between AI systems and human designers to ensure that the technology is used effectively and ethically

c) continued investment in research and development to push the boundaries of what AI can achieve, as well as increased awareness and education about the capabilities and limitations of AI in the design and development process

4. What impact Ai could have on the need for humans in the Design and Development Process

5 - AI systems can already perform many tasks that were previously done by humans, such as generating design concepts, optimizing product features, and predicting customer preferences. As AI continues to improve, it will perform these tasks at a higher level of quality and efficiency than humans.

This could have a significant impact on the number of staff required in a company's design and development teams, AI systems could:

• replace human designers in generating design concepts and iterating on them based on customer feedback

• take over the role of product managers in identifying customer needs and preferences and optimizing product features accordingly
  

10 - AI could potentially take on even more advanced roles in the design and development process, such as overseeing the entire product development lifecycle and making decisions autonomously. This could further reduce the need for human interaction in the design and development teams.

However, it's important to note that AI is not likely to completely replace human designers and developers, as there will always be a need for human input in the creative process and to ensure ethical considerations are addressed

20 - AI is expected to be even more advanced, with the potential to create and develop entirely new product categories and designs that would not have been possible without AI. This could lead to significant disruption in the design and development industries, potentially replacing entire teams with AI systems.

However, it's important to consider the potential ethical implications of AI and the need for human oversight in the development process

My thoughts:

I cannot argue with the findings suggested and the picture it paints. However, the service struggled to give more detail than above, it also required directing to stop from going too broad and general in responses with an inclination into generic rhetoric, it also could not suggest the likelihood of events, repeatedly tried to reassure against any human cost to AI development and stopped its response 3 times to rewrite and improve, to me showing this was at the limits of its current abilities and a clear direction from its programming to reassure

My impressions of the service from this first chat are that as a first draft tool, it is excellent, to gather basic entry-level information that can then be shaped it is great, and in the near term that should be true for all new Ai services. Great tools, but they are very much just tools, to be used by people who have the scope of understanding to use them well, awesome for the more experienced and able users.

However, it does worry me for new entries to the industry, how can they gain the experience needed to really understand design and development when they get given so much so easily, research done in seconds (is there any understanding of its purpose - TBD), concepts to be done in seconds based on keywords, renders to be done in seconds to a level at or greater than people achieve after years of practice, development plans done with critical path analysis in seconds with risks factored in without anything missed - all of this sounds like a design leads wet dream quite frankly and will allow myself and others to produce everything faster and enable project load to skyrocket. I am not sure though how new talent can be taught to think and appreciate the fundamentals needed to develop in this scenario

Something to think on... maybe I'll ask Chat-GPT again...